NBA.

corrections · **Joined:** Thu Oct 07, 2010 9:11 pm **Posts:** 27988

Paulie wrote:

corrections wrote:

Paulie wrote:

Because everyone at ESPN (most of the analysts anyway; I actually like some of their commentators) are le dumb.

Also, horrible time for the Spurs to start to get injured. LA is just 3 1/2 games back and even though they have the tougher schedule (Dallas, Denver, Portland, @OKC- yuck), they get to host San Antonio in the only remaining match-up between the two teams, and considering the way they've been playing over the last month, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if LA finished atop the West. It'd be an epic "comeback" in the sense that the Spurs had seemingly been immovable from the #1 spot all year.

I'd be really surprised. Its only 3 back in the loss column but that amount with 8 games to go is huge. I mean last night the Spurs started none of their big 3 and still didn't lose that badly to Portland. Just don't see it happening. Because LA isn't running the table the rest of the way either. Not only have the never put more than 11 together with Bryant and Gasol if they did run the table it would be the best post all star performance ever and they aren't doing that. They also have a pretty brutal schedule. And btw the Portland game is at Portland.

I'm pretty pissed about the Dallas vs. LA scheduling though. Mavs get to play it on the back end of a back to back on the road. Lakers get to play it having not played since Sunday.

Yeah I had the Portland/OKC home and road thing mixed up. Misread the schedule, my b.

@Golden State - 3-0, margin of victory 19ppg
@Sacramento - 2-1, margin of victory of 13.3ppg
Oklahoma City - 2-0, game is at Staples where OKC is 0-7 in their last 7 games.
@Portland - 3-0, tough game as Portland always plays the Lakers well; LA won the first game in Portland.
Utah (both home and away) - 1-1, no Bynum in the loss by 6 in SLC, won by 29 in LA. No Deron Williams, Jazz are horrible on the road, have been horrible in the second half.
Denver - 1-1, again no Bynum in the loss, like Portland plays LA tough all the time, and they've been super hot as of late. Denver is another shitty road team though so yeah I'd say advantage LA.
Dallas - 1-1, pretty evenly matched beat Dallas on the road recently, been the better team over the last month, and as you said, it's the second game of a back-to-back for the Mavs. Could go either way.
San Antonio - 1-2; first big loss in SA was with Bynum just then getting healty. Second loss was on a tip in at the buzzer in a game the Lakers could have easily won. The most recent game in San Antonio the Lakers embarrassed the Spurs. Spurs have also been dealing with lots of injuries lately so who knows if they'll be healthy in time for the game.

So I see 14-6, three of those losses on the road and with either Bynum absent or ailing and one 50-50 loss at the buzzer. Anyway, yeah it's a tough schedule but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if LA at least went 7-2. If one of those wins is against San Antonio, that already cuts it to two games back. The Spurs schedule is easier but they play three back-to-backs, two from 3/31-4/6 and 5 games in that same 7 day stretch, and their current health problems only compound the difficulty of playing those b2bs. Boston, @Houston, @Phoenix, @Atlanta and @Los Angeles all look like losable games. Remember, this isn't the same Spurs team that rolled over teams to a 40-7 start. They're still one of the elite teams no doubt, but since they All-star break they're 11-7, and their average MOV is a paltry 1.7ppg. I don't need to tell you that over the same period, the Lakers are 15-1* with an 8.6 MOV. Oh, and contrary to the ailing Spurs, the Los Angeles are only getting healthier, with the return of Barnes and Bynum obviously feeling pretty well.

BOLDED: So they haven't won 11 in a row with Gasol and Kobe- so what? Like I said, 15-1 in their last 16 with wins against Orlando @Portland, @OKC, @Dallas, @San Antonio and @Atlanta (who've combined for a .729 win% at home this year). So they haven't won 11 in a row with Gasol and Kobe- is what they've done recently any less impressive? What precedent does the lack of an 11-game win streak in seasons past against different teams than they'll face over the next few weeks, as a different team, have?? Seems pretty arbitrary.

I'm not predicting it to happen or anything, I'm just saying it's not exactly a far-fetched proposition. If the over/under bet was a 40% chance of LA taking the top seed, I'd take the over any day.

And I'd take the under every day. If the over under was 20% then maybe I'd take the over. 2 games back for a team as good as the Spurs where they win over 75% of their games is about equivalent to 6 wins (this is assuming you win that game which if you do I think gives you the tie break so long as there are no WC losses you pick up later or San Antonio loses some others. That's a lot of ground to make up in not much time. And at the same time you still have to fend of the Mavs (which is likely) but you still have a shot of losing out the race to the Mavs even if you beat the Spurs. Say for example Dallas beats LA and then both run off 1 more loss each the rest of the way and pass the Spurs. Then the Mavs loss of the tie breaker switches to their favor. That's a small chance because of all the variables but it still lowers LAs odds.

corrections · **Joined:** Thu Oct 07, 2010 9:11 pm **Posts:** 27988

jumpman8828 wrote:

Will the heat have Haslem back for the playoffs?

Possibly but I don't think he will be 100%.

corrections · **Joined:** Thu Oct 07, 2010 9:11 pm **Posts:** 27988

I don't want to complain too much about the officiating because the bottom line is the Mavs are missing tons of open looks and beating themselves but particularly with Bynum he's getting away with travelling every other time down low and in addition to that he and Odom are getting away with mugging Dallas players on basically every rebound. The offensive foul call on Dirk when Odom was draped all over him was ridiculous and that isn't even counting the technical bullshit in this game. I just am really annoyed that the Lakers haven't exactly stopped the Mavs but the Mavs have missed stats they've been making.

Paulie · **Joined:** Thu Dec 09, 2010 9:42 pm **Posts:** 4629

corrections · **Joined:** Thu Oct 07, 2010 9:11 pm **Posts:** 27988

Paulie wrote:

Heh.

That was a bizarre end. Well congrats on the 2nd seed. Even though we're going to lose I hope we get that 2nd round matchup. That will be a whole hell of a lot of fun.

Edit: Now I really hope you do pass San Antonio because I would much rather play them in the 2nd round and get a chance to lose in the conference finals.

BTW now that it has come to pass that the Lakers have put together their past run and look to have the hold on the number 2 or better seed my prediction from earlier this year was I think

1. San Antonio
2. Lakers
3. Celtics
4. Mavs
5. Bulls

6. Heat
7. Orlando
8. OKC

However, with this little bit of time left and having seen the Lakers truly show me something since the All Star Break

1. Lakers
2. Bulls
3. Celtics
4. Mavs
5. Spurs

6. Heat
7. OKC
8. Orlando (only because that Atlanta matchup is suddenly awful for them).

jumpman8828 · **Posted:** Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:25 am

From the box score it looks like everyone but Dirk fell asleep in the second half. What happened?

Paulie · **Joined:** Thu Dec 09, 2010 9:42 pm **Posts:** 4629

corrections wrote:

That was a bizarre end.

Okay I'm not gonna lie, I turned it off at like 90-70. WTF happened after that? Flagrants and techs and like 18 free throws for LA? Sounds grosssssss.

edit lolz Liam sorta beat me to it.

corrections · **Joined:** Thu Oct 07, 2010 9:11 pm **Posts:** 27988

Paulie wrote:

corrections wrote:

That was a bizarre end.

Okay I'm not gonna lie, I turned it off at like 90-70. WTF happened after that? Flagrants and techs and like 18 free throws for LA? Sounds grosssssss.

edit lolz Liam sorta beat me to it.

Basically Terry fouled Blake and he was doing a kind of floppy thing so Terry being annoyed with playing like shit two-handed shoved him to the ground while he was in the flop. Blake got up and got in his face and they started jawing then Barnes came over and shoved Terry and when Crawford ejected him started going crazy (he threw an assistant coach who was trying to restrain him down). Haywood got ejected for reasons I can't fathom since he seemed like a peace maker but maybe he said something. Cardinal made a nice save to keep Chandler from leaving the bench area. Terry got a flagrant 2 and an ejection. The others all just got ejected. Theo Ratliff got selected to shoot for Barnes and missed both. That about covers it. Mavs ran the lead down to 12 and then it got back out of hand.

Paulie · **Joined:** Thu Dec 09, 2010 9:42 pm **Posts:** 4629

Sounds really, really lame. I honestly didn't know Theo Ratliff was still alive. I guess it's still questionable.

pave · **Posted:** Fri Apr 01, 2011 4:35 pm

evidence to my "Thunder aren't a real contender" prediction before the season: the 3rd best player on their team going into the season (Green) is now a 20 minute a night bench player on a real contender...

Paulie · **Joined:** Thu Dec 09, 2010 9:42 pm **Posts:** 4629

pave wrote:

evidence to my "Thunder aren't a real contender" prediction before the season: the 3rd best player on their team going into the season (Green) is now a 20 minute a night bench player on a real contender...

Green may have been playing the third most minutes on the team but 100% of the time I would have taken Harden and Ibaka over him (Green), both before the season and up to this point, because they're both better players. Also, considering the fact that both their #1 and #2 guys are probably in the top 10-15 or so players in the entire league, I'd say it makes the quality of their #3 spot a little less important/integral to their success and indicative of their overall talent than normal. Fuck, Harden and Ibaka are just GOOD anyway, regardless of who else they're playing with; efficient offense+above-average defense- I'll take that any day. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce starting at the positions Green plays doesn't doesn't make it any easier for him to get much more than 23 a game.

More on Harden, just 'cause
Over the 18 games since Green was traded:
28mpg
98/200 fg/fga=49%/85%ft
16.5ppg/2.8rpg/2.3apg/1.4spg
I'm not going to go through the trouble of figuring up his PER over that period but if his PER on the season is 16.3 and he's been significantly better over the last 25% of his games, I'd assume his PER would be trending up as well. That kind of production with his defense? Fuckin' number three on most teams, let alone one with two megastars.

Paulie · **Joined:** Thu Dec 09, 2010 9:42 pm **Posts:** 4629

1 1/2 back now, fuckin' chyeaaaaah

corrections · **Joined:** Thu Oct 07, 2010 9:11 pm **Posts:** 27988

Paulie wrote:

1 1/2 back now, fuckin' chyeaaaaah

Loss column is really all that matters for teams that good but yeah guess I don't need to check that score.

George · **Joined:** Thu Oct 07, 2010 12:43 pm **Posts:** 5612

am i the only one who found this stat from yesterday shocking - SIXTEEN offensive rebounds for andrae blatch?! that's an all-time great mark.

comparing that to others' career high offensive rebounds - http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... _game.html
though these stats only go back to the 85-86 season... moses malone grabbed 21 offensive rebounds once, i think that's the all-time record since they started counting them.

Paulie · **Joined:** Thu Dec 09, 2010 9:42 pm **Posts:** 4629

16 Oreb while his team shot 49% from the field, pretty impressive! And lol, what the hell was he doing taking 32 shots?! I wonder how many of those boards were off his own misses.

NBA.

Who is online