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The correlation coefficient between relative away/home win totals from year to year is 0.005; one year’s away record has absolutely no value predicting the next year’s road record after you account for how the team plays at home.

That brings the Cowboys argument to a pretty quick halt. You would have to believe there’s something innate that can happen only in a single season, that you somehow lose your road warrior status over an offseason.

But even then, the anecdotal stuff that’s happened in those games breaks down the logic of the argument. Did the Cowboys really design that crazy kickoff on purpose, knowing it wouldn’t work when they played the Eagles in Texas? Did they really have an adoring fan base rooting them on in Philadelphia yesterday that might qualify as some sort of hidden road-field advantage? Did they somehow time the Romo injury to occur during Dallas’s three-game homestand, causing him to miss crucial time in the losses to Washington and Arizona?

Of course not. It’s just randomness. The Cowboys have been better on the road than they have been at home, but that’s not caused by anything and it’s not going to tell us anything about how Dallas will play going forward.

Author:	jumpman8828 [ Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:55 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
corrections wrote: Vengeance is ours! Interesting how Philly was able to largely bottle up Murray though. I didn't watch most of the game, was Dallas' line fucking up or was Philly's front just that good?

Author:	pgm [ Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:58 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
jumpman8828 wrote: corrections wrote: Vengeance is ours! Interesting how Philly was able to largely bottle up Murray though. I didn't watch most of the game, was Dallas' line fucking up or was Philly's front just that good? Dallas's line did a really good job protecting Romo--he had plays where he could stand there for five seconds, duck the one guy who made it through, and then throw to the wide open receiver. I think the Eagles came with a game plan to take Murray out of the game, but it was a plan that only works if the DBs can cover and they couldn't last night.

Author:	jumpman8828 [ Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:19 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
Man, I'd love to see a Dallas-Seattle rematch in the playoffs with Seattle's rejuvenated D

Author:	corrections [ Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:56 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
jumpman8828 wrote: corrections wrote: Vengeance is ours! Interesting how Philly was able to largely bottle up Murray though. I didn't watch most of the game, was Dallas' line fucking up or was Philly's front just that good? Philly's front is really good particularly on the interior. Fletcher Cox was murdering Leary. Didn't help that Free went out for the second half. It was unusual though because they usually run block better than they pass block.

Author:	corrections [ Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:58 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
jumpman8828 wrote: Man, I'd love to see a Dallas-Seattle rematch in the playoffs with Seattle's rejuvenated D I think Dallas' offense matches up with Seattle's defense better than any other team in the NFC. Dallas is the only team with a powerful road grading line and that's I believe the only way to beat Seattle. They're really hard to run on but if you have a power run game you can really give them trouble (whereas they eat misdirection and other motion based offenses alive).

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Author:	pgm [ Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:22 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
Quick question, why is Dallas so much better on the road than at home? Is it a coincidence/sample size issue, or is there something to this?

Author:	jumpman8828 [ Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:44 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
I think Bill Barnwell said it best today: Quote: The correlation coefficient between relative away/home win totals from year to year is 0.005; one year’s away record has absolutely no value predicting the next year’s road record after you account for how the team plays at home. That brings the Cowboys argument to a pretty quick halt. You would have to believe there’s something innate that can happen only in a single season, that you somehow lose your road warrior status over an offseason. But even then, the anecdotal stuff that’s happened in those games breaks down the logic of the argument. Did the Cowboys really design that crazy kickoff on purpose, knowing it wouldn’t work when they played the Eagles in Texas? Did they really have an adoring fan base rooting them on in Philadelphia yesterday that might qualify as some sort of hidden road-field advantage? Did they somehow time the Romo injury to occur during Dallas’s three-game homestand, causing him to miss crucial time in the losses to Washington and Arizona? Of course not. It’s just randomness. The Cowboys have been better on the road than they have been at home, but that’s not caused by anything and it’s not going to tell us anything about how Dallas will play going forward. Would be a shame if Murray missed a game with the chance to still hit 2K

Author:	pgm [ Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:59 am ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
The article about Andy Luck congratulating people who hit him is one of the best things I've read today.

Author:	jumpman8828 [ Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:41 am ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
it really is so fun. And totally deflates any pump a player gets after a good hit. "YEAH BITC-- oh...thanks man."

Author:	Eric J [ Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:25 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
Crx or Led, either of you think you can post this?: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... cutler-nfl Thanks.

Author:	corrections [ Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:40 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
The way the Chicago Bears handled an assistant coach's anonymous criticisms of quarterback Jay Cutler mirrored how the team has handled Cutler's penchant for mistakes and undisciplined play. Those mistakes, on display from the beginning of a 31-15 home defeat to the Saints on "Monday Night Football," amplify questions about how the team should proceed at the position. Before we run through potential scenarios, a lesson in the Bears' team psychology is in order. General manager Phil Emery, like head coach Marc Trestman, is known as the intelligent, reflective type. These guys see teaching moments when others might see red. That shined through in the nuanced 900-word explanation Emery provided to WBBM-AM 780 radio in Chicago when explaining how the team handled offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer's unusual admission that he had spoken out of turn regarding Cutler. Trestman could have lashed out at Kromer or fired him, but instead he turned the situation into a teaching moment. Kromer delivered a tearful apology to the team. They would work through the situation together. "Marc had a dilemma," Emery explained in his radio comments. "I would say that his dilemma and all the issues revolving around this decision -- you could lay this out in MBA class and talk about in terms of how a decision is made, how are leaders formed, how do leaders make decisions. "Part of that is very tough because you always have to treat people with respect," Emery said. "You have to have restraint of your emotions before you make decisions which involve the common good or involve the best interest of the team." Keep that in mind when considering how the Bears might proceed with Cutler, a $126 million quarterback who leads the NFL in turnovers for a team with a 5-9 record. (We're going to run through the team's options below.) Cutler is not the Bears' only problem, of course. The defense lacks talent. When sorting every NFL defense since 2006 by expected points added per game (EPA explained here), this Chicago defense comes in at No. 280 out of 288. The 2013 version was ranked 275th. If the Bears were strong on defense, they could more easily weather the turnovers and poor decisions that consistently mark Cutler's play in the eyes of coaches throughout the league and on the Bears' staff, if one trusts what Kromer said in a weak moment. Cutler is the one handling the ball and setting the tone for the offense, however, and his contract is making it tougher for the team to achieve needed upgrades elsewhere on its roster. What recourse do the Bears have? Not much, for reasons that become clear as we examine their potential options: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Option 1: Releasing Cutler, which is a tough sell to any team owner The Bears must pay $15.5 million to Cutler in 2015 whether or not he's on the roster next season. Releasing him would be along the lines of Washington trading Albert Haynesworth in 2011, two years after the Redskins signed him to a seven-year, $100 million deal. It's a long shot. The Bears owe another $10 million in fully guaranteed money to Cutler in 2016 if he is on the roster three days into the 2015 league year. Those dynamics probably mean there's an outside chance the team would move on from Cutler after the 2015 season if he played poorly. Realistically, however, Cutler is probably going to be the Bears' quarterback through 2016 unless another coach/GM combination takes control and decides to start over, or unless the team drafts a player who proves to be a more appealing alternative. "I would get rid of him," said a veteran defensive coach who has prepared to face Cutler multiple times over the years. "He is not a winner. You watch him throw interceptions and then go sit by himself on the bench, not even flipping through pictures -- just sitting there. I would draft someone, sign a backup and just be done with it." Personnel evaluators generally aren't so harsh when it comes to Cutler. They tend to place greater value on the physical attributes that made Cutler a first-round draft choice in 2006. That split in perspective came into focus during the offseason when I asked 26 evaluators and coaches to place all 32 projected starting quarterbacks into five tiers. Cutler received zero first tier votes from any of the 15 evaluators or 11 coaches. Seven evaluators placed Cutler into the second tier. Only three coaches did. The remaining eight evaluators and eight coaches all placed Cutler into the third tier. He is a third-tier quarterback earning first-tier money on a deal struck before San Francisco and Cincinnati signed their starters to deals with additional protections for the team. (Editor's note: The following paragraph was added Tuesday afternoon after the article's initial publication Tuesday morning.) Update: An executive from another team called me Monday after this article was originally published to point out that Cutler's contract, like the contracts of many other players, does include off-set language for guaranteed money. That's an important point, because it means if the Bears did release Cutler after this season, whatever salary he earned from his next team in 2015 would be subtracted from Chicago's $15.5 million commitment to him, with cap savings deferred. For example, if another team paid $5 million to Cutler in 2015, then the Bears would owe him $10.5 million, softening the financial blow for the team. The same provision exists for the $10 million in guarantees for the 2016 season. This is uncharted territory for high-profile contracts involving veteran players with such large guarantees. In similar cases, teams have felt good enough about keeping the player to pay those guarantees. Whether the Bears will still feel that way after this season remains to be seen. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Option 2: Keeping Cutler and making the best of it Cutler ranked 17th in the QB Tiers project. He ranks 21st in Total QBR this season (55.0, which is below the 56.3 average for the league). He ranks 17th out of 29 qualifying quarterbacks since 2009, his first season in Chicago. As noted earlier, Cutler has been backed by defenses that ranked 275th (2013) and 280th (2014) out of 288 defenses since 2006. The Saints' 2014 defense ranked 288th and dead last heading into Monday night, but it still picked off Cutler three times and shut out the Bears through three-plus quarters. Cutler has left a long list of big-name coaches in his wake over the years, and Trestman could be next, but one evaluator I spoke with for the QB Tiers project that I followed up with on Monday was undeterred. "If I was going to a team next year and they said you could have Cutler or Josh McCown or Mike Glennon or some guy like that, I would take Cutler in a heartbeat," this evaluator said. "Players might not like you, but he can make any pass and get it out. That is just a really, really bad situation there." Cutler's contract is part of what makes it bad. "If the money is guaranteed, what are you going to do, play a rookie?" the evaluator asked. "Sign a backup that you know cannot play? I would make sure I took care of the quarterback before I took care of the coach and GM." Trestman and Emery have helped Cutler in some ways. They have acquired or kept together a supporting cast featuring one of the game's most versatile backs in Matt Forte, two of its most imposing receivers in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, a talented pass-catching tight end in Martellus Bennett and an offensive line that is better than it was for years. It got them an 8-8 record last season and worse in 2014. "Cutler has not won a title, but he has proven he can win," the evaluator said. "Guys have bad years. Their defense is so pathetic, it is not even funny. Go ahead and start pointing fingers, but remember when Seattle won the Super Bowl last season, it was because of their defense and forcing turnovers. Then they ran it with Marshawn Lynch and play-actioned with Russell Wilson. The defense won it." This Chicago defense isn't going to win anything, especially with Cutler leading the league in turnovers. It's a situation suited for an MBA class, but it is also the Bears' reality. That is why, absent a quarterback they love falling into their laps in the draft (if the season ended today, Chicago would select ninth overall), the Bears are most likely stuck with Cutler as their starting QB the next couple of years, and will have to focus their efforts on building around him -- particularly by improving the defense. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes • Two to watch in Denver: Peyton Manning's injury and illness overshadowed all else in the Broncos' recent victory over San Diego, but a coach who has studied Denver recently told me he thought there were two encouraging signs for the offense. Julius Thomas' return to health is the obvious one. A potential resurgence by slot receiver Wes Welker is the other. The coach thought Welker showed greater quickness over the past couple of games, including when he caught a pass on a seam route for a 38-yard gain against Buffalo. It was Welker's longest reception since Week 7 against San Francisco and his second longest of the season. Denver can have the most explosive pass offense in the league when everyone is healthy. Getting everyone healthy for the playoffs is the key. "When 80 [Thomas] is back, now it's a cluster for the defense because now you are into, do you cover him with a corner?" the coach said. "Because no linebacker or safety can cover him." • Sacked on a screen: The three interceptions Cutler threw were not necessarily the most frustrating plays from a coaching perspective. The sack Cutler took on third-and-long early in the game was a head-scratcher. "That is a typical screen down, so he is not surprised by the call when it comes in," a veteran coach said. "The back is covered on the screen. He can throw it into the ground. Instead, he pumps. The back does not get away. The linemen are moving downfield because it is a screen. The edge-rusher beats the tackle and makes the sack. That is just not a veteran play by the quarterback." • Top rookie WR class: The 2014 rookie class of wide receivers already has more receptions (821) for more yards (10,849) and more touchdowns (84) than any rookie class in the history of ESPN's data warehouse, which dates to 2001. It's not even close. The 2009 class featuring Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Kenny Britt and Michael Crabtree had 721 receptions for 9,574 yards over their entire rookie season. The chart below ranks wide receiver draft classes since 2001 by most receptions during their rookie seasons. The final column lists the rookie receptions leader for each season. Rookie WR comparison 2001-14 receptions, yards, receiving TDs for rookie WRs Rookie class Rec Yards TD Receptions Leader 2014* 821 10,849 84 Odell Beckham 2009 708 9,574 54 Percy Harvin/Austin Collie 2012 689 9,178 55 Justin Blackmon 2013 637 8,556 58 Keenan Allen 2010 626 8,290 51 Mike Williams 2011 573 8,151 49 A.J. Green 2003 487 6,569 37 Anquan Boldin 2004 478 6,915 52 Michael Clayton 2002 460 6,155 47 Antonio Bryant 2008 460 5,332 25 Eddie Royal 2001 459 6,628 24 Chris Chambers 2005 411 5,307 35 Mark Clayton 2007 407 5,377 23 Dwayne Bowe 2006 320 4,619 24 Marques Colston

Author:	Eric J [ Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:01 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
Thanks. And reports coming out now that ownership talked last night after the game and Trestman will very likely be fired, and Emery's status is "under discussion." Really, really sucks when you realize that hearing the coach will be fired is the best news you've heard all year. Also, per the article, there's totally a couple teams stupid enough to take on Cutler's contract for 2 years if the Bears wanted to trade. Jets come to mind, maybe Titans, usually I'd say Raiders but giving Carr a chance is clearly the better option. Also I actually think he'd do pretty well in Houston with the run game and the D they have.

Author:	jumpman8828 [ Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:08 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
knowing the Jets, they'll be drafting Jameis Winston this year

Author:	joe c [ Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:39 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
Click here for my updated QB rankings. I apologize in advance, Eric J.

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Author:	corrections [ Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:42 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: NFL.
http://deadspin.com/jay-cutler-has-been ... 1672487252 I'm sorry Eric J